Media reports indicate that there is a possibility that the Russian Federation will attempt to convey this plan to the new U.S. administration through governments and representatives of foreign states. According to the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA), Moscow may use this document to promote the idea of eliminating Ukraine's political sovereignty and dividing its territory into three parts.
- The first part includes the partially and fully occupied regions of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts, and Crimea), which Russia will insist on incorporating into its territory, referred to on the map as "new territories."
- The second part, which includes Kyiv, is described in the document as a "pro-Russian state formation." According to Interfax, there are plans to establish a state entity with pro-Russian authority and a Russian military presence there.
- The third part is referred to in the document as "disputed territories" and encompasses the western regions of Ukraine. The Kremlin believes that their future can be decided by Russia and other neighboring countries – Hungary, Poland, Romania.
The Ukrainian military intelligence is aware of this document and is familiar with its contents, confirmed Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), in a comment to "Interfax-Ukraine" on November 22.
"The HUR of the Ministry of Defense is familiar with this document. Moreover, this document was prepared by the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia around December of last year. This document serves as the foundation for prospective defense planning over a certain timeframe – at least for 10 years. Specifically, it was developed for the period from 2026 to 2035, with a perspective extending to 2045," he noted.
According to Skibitskyi, the plan outlines the further development of the situation on both global and regional levels and highlights the threats that Russia perceives for itself in the future.
He also mentioned that during his speech at the annual YES meeting, HUR head Kyrylo Budanov revealed some elements of this document. In particular, Budanov stated that Russia would seek to "resolve" the issue of Ukraine by 2026, as outlined in this Russian document. The HUR explains that this is due to the fact that a prolonged war will impact all aspects of life for Russians – economic, demographic, and image-related.
"Regarding the possible division of Ukraine. Undoubtedly, Russia's strategic goal remains the complete occupation of our state. This scenario of further developments with a potential division of territory is relevant not just for 2035–2045, but will become pertinent much sooner, by 2026, or perhaps even earlier. You have heard [illegitimate President of Russia Vladimir] Putin's statements regarding Ukrainian territories. He is already asserting that Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and Crimea are supposedly territories of Russia according to their constitution," Skibitskyi added.
He emphasized that Putin needs all of Ukraine to possess significant economic, demographic, territorial, and military potential.
The document also envisions the establishment of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv or a mandatory "neutral" government, meaning that the country would not join NATO, noted the HUR representative.
"This is all an analysis and assessment by the Russians. We see how quickly they can alter their plans based on successes, the reactions of the international community, and the evolution of the situation," Skibitskyi added.
He does not rule out that Russia may try to pass this document to the United States: such a threat exists, but there is currently no evidence that the plan has already been transferred, Skibitskyi concluded.