Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine may come to an end in 2025, as both sides are nearing exhaustion and "would prefer for the conflict to taper off."
This forecast is provided by The Economist.
Putin is ready to discuss a freeze on the front line war with Trump – ReutersReuters reports that Putin is allegedly willing to discuss ending the war in Ukraine with Trump, but without territorial concessions and with significant demands.The article highlights that not only Ukraine has faced the harsh consequences of war. The Russian economy is suffering due to a combination of Western sanctions, labor shortages, and emigration. In early November, inflation reached double digits, interest rates were at 21%, and 40% of the budget was allocated to military expenses.
According to the publication, in 2025, pressure on Ukraine will increase to enter some form of negotiations with Russia. In the context of a possible deal, Ukraine "will have to come to terms with the loss of part of its territory."
"In return, Ukraine must have reliable security guarantees, the ideal option being full NATO membership. This would likely be an acceptable solution in Kyiv, although it would be painful for Ukraine to accept. However, with Trump returning to power, Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO for many years, if at all; yet it may still receive some form of security guarantees. In any case, it now seems quite probable that discussions will begin in 2025, and when that happens, hostilities may significantly diminish, possibly even leading to a ceasefire. This is what happened in 2014 (although that ceasefire was never fully observed). While negotiations are ongoing, a semi-frozen conflict may arise. Imperfect, yes, but much better than the current situation," the article states.
It is worth noting that President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Donald Trump's election as President of the United States will impact the pace of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. He has stated that Trump will not be able to force Ukraine into any potential territorial concessions.
He also mentioned that Ukraine aims to end the war no later than 2025.