The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that the current tariffs for gas, heating, and hot water will not be revised during 2024-2025.
This is mentioned in the latest inflation report.
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the number of debts for utilities has increased by a third – OpendatabotIn Ukraine, there are 701 thousand cases of debt collection for utilities. Since the onset of the full-scale war, this number has risen by 37 percent.However, the National Bank emphasized that considering the challenging situation in the energy sector, it is projected that from 2026 onwards, there will be a gradual adjustment of these tariffs to their economically justified levels.
“The uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of tariff adjustments, primarily for energy, poses a separate risk for the inflation forecast. If the cost of energy carriers or other utility tariffs rises rapidly, it will contribute additionally to the inflation rate, and there will also be a need for increased subsidies for the population,” the report states.
Moreover, the NBU noted that a prolonged delay in the decision to raise utility tariffs will lead to a lower inflation rate but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state energy companies.
It is worth noting that in the inflation report published in early August, the NBU predicted that some utility tariffs will increase in 2025.
Recall that the Ministry of Finance stated that there is no clear commitment to raise utility tariffs in the memorandum with the IMF.