"They need to create a commotion. Putin has raised the stakes: in my opinion, he is going all in. He requires pro-Russian forces to take to the streets. The scheme is standard – creating unbearable living conditions, protests, and the first casualties..." – suggests the expert.
He believes that the current geopolitical situation could lead to the pro-Russian "Transnistrian Moldovan Republic" breaking away from Kremlin control. Consequently, Moscow will try to maintain its influence in the region and work towards bringing pro-Russian forces to power in Moldova, and "this plan could succeed."
"Society in the country is very divided; [Moldova's president] Maia Sandu owes her victory solely to the diaspora. Now it all comes down to the parliamentary elections. This is a parliamentary-presidential republic, and the president has fewer powers than the prime minister," – noted the analyst.
So far, in his opinion, the president and the prime minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean, "are successfully cooperating" and are united on important issues, particularly regarding the reintegration of Transnistria. However, the crisis in the self-proclaimed republic presents Russia with an opportunity to destabilize the situation and replace Sandu, who, according to Klochk, "does not favor allies, pursues an independent policy, and this will create problems for her in the future parliament."
To achieve this, the expert believes it was necessary to devise a reason for public discontent, a catalyst that would outrage the masses.
"The issue is not how people will vote in the elections – the Kremlin ideally wants to provoke Chișinău so that it cannot maintain its position. After that, they will manipulate the elections themselves," – Klochk concluded.